Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison

We use several U.S. and euro‐area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time‐varying uncertainty. We obtain survey‐consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the U.S. and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that accounts for inflation uncertainty. Our results suggest that following the Great Recession, inflation anchoring improved in the United States, while mild de‐anchoring occurred in the euro area. As of our sample end, both areas appear to be almost equally anchored.     

The effects of power on consumers’ evaluation of a luxury brand's corporate social responsibility

This paper examines how power affects consumers’ responses to corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives of luxury brands. The results of three studies show that high‐power individuals evaluated a luxury brand's CSR campaign more positively than low‐power individuals. High‐power individuals viewed CSR activities as being more fluent than low‐power individuals. This study further demonstrates that power influences consumers’ responses to nonluxury brand's CSR activities. Low‐power individuals, who are more receptive to warmth, evaluated nonluxury brand's CSR more favorably rather than high‐power individuals.     

归因偏差视角下旅游行为失范成因研究

游客旅游行为失范时有发生,威胁着旅游资源与环境安全。心理归因影响个体行为逻辑,归因偏差是解释心理归因的经典理论。本文引入归因偏差理论,采用实证方法探究旅游行为失范背后的归因偏差因素,为减少旅游行为失范提供心理学依据。研究发现,归因偏差能够引致旅游者心理认知偏差,后者直接引发和助推旅游行为失范。心理环境和群体心理对引致旅游者的心理认知偏差和行为失范具有显著作用,归因偏差成为旅游者弱化旅游行为失范结果的心理屏障,可激发或促进旅游行为失范的发生或持续。研究认为旅游地可从完善硬件监控、控制游客流量、强化失范行为负面教育、发挥在场监督作用等方式削弱归因偏差效应。     

Inflation,real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters

Expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers. In this article, we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using data of the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In particular, we provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for three key macroeconomic variables: the inflation rate, the growth rate of real gross domestic product and the unemployment rate.     

员工关系管理理论综述

国内外企业经营管理实践证明，和谐的员工关系不仅能帮助企业赢得人才、留住人才，而且可以使企业管理和业务的运作效率大幅提升，从而更有效的实现企业的经营目标。文章对国内外员工关系管理的研究进展及成果进行了一定的综述，并在此基础上对符合我国国情的员工关系管理做出了一些探讨。最后，文章对员工关系管理需要进一步深入研究的问题提出了几点看法。     

人的现代性与人的心理健康特征之关系探讨

本文在国内外关于人的现代化研究的大背景下,通过比较“人的现代性”和“人的心理健康”两者概念、内涵与外延、有关标准的异同,认为:(1)人的现代性应具备一定的心理健康要求,提高人的心理健康水平是实现人的现代性的保证。(2)现代人的心理健康问题应置于人的现代化的语境下来思考和发掘。     

高职学生心理素质现状分析及培养规划

我国高职院校录取分数线低,生源素质较差,自卑心理普遍,学习动力缺乏,人际交往能力不成熟。不成熟的心理素质严重妨碍了他们三年的学习生活和将来的适应就业。本文试图提出一个心理干预的规划蓝图,通过三层次心理辅导干预,致力于学生人格的重塑和未来职业心理素质的培养。     

以扩大内需促进就业问题研究

随着我国经济进入新的发展阶段后,投资对劳动力逐渐显现出排挤作用,出口也由其发展前景受限而对劳动力的吸纳作用减弱。而内需由于其对劳动密集型产业产品的需求,对就业有很强的带动作用。本文将论述以内需扩大就业的必要性,找出其中存在的问题,并提出相应建议。     

Are Housing Price Cycles Driven by Irrational Expectations?

This paper investigates the extent to which condominium apartment prices are set in an efficient asset market. Unlike previous work that focuses on the time-series properties of measures of excess returns, the analysis is framed in terms of the changes in observable house prices over time. More precisely, the paper develops and applies a test of the joint null hypothesis of rational expectations, perfect markets, and no risk premium in the Vancouver condominium apartment market. The empirical results provide significant evidence against the joint null hypothesis. On average, ex post house price changes move in a direction opposite to their rational expectation. This approach offers a methodological advantage over the standard efficiency literature and is shown to provide a more powerful test of market efficiency than conventional return regressions. Another contribution of the paper is to characterize the time-series properties of deviations of condominium prices from those predicted by the risk-neutral rational expectations model, using cointegration and random coefficients techniques. Deviations in house price changes from their (risk-neutral) rational expectations are time varying, stationary, and related to the stage of the real estate price cycle.     

浅谈英语听力理解中的心理障碍及其克服方法

听在人类语言交际活动中占有很重要的地位。听、说、读、写——外语学习的基本步骤中，听排第一位。随着高考、大学英语四、六级考试对听力理解，听力测试的要求，学生对其产生的心理障碍也随及增长，引发出被动心理现象，疲倦感觉现象和紧张，恐惧现象。培养和提高听力水平和听力能力，必须从理论上认识听力理解的过程，从心理上克服种种障碍。